By applying the probabilistic benefit-cost analysis with Monte Carlo simulation, this study reveals the energy- and life-cycle climate and pollution-related health impacts, and various social costs in China of gasoline-to-electric vehicle (GV-to-EV) substitutions. Key factors influencing these estimates are also elicited. Results indicate that a GV-to-EV substitution can annually achieve benefits of 324 yuan on climate, 343 yuan on health, and 4315 yuan on energy savings in the energy cycle under current technical conditions and the dynamics of power grid development. However, these benefits are offset by the incremental manufacturing cost (16000 yuan/car-year), and the social welfare improvement over the life cycle is negative in the short run. This study highlights the importance of prioritizing GV-to-EV substitutions only in areas with high health, climate, and energy-saving benefits.